Workshop Agenda & Materials

DAY 1

Wednesday 9th March – 8:15 am to 5:45 pm

Davis Auditorium

8:15-8:45am Registration, Light Breakfast and Coffee

8:45am – Welcome

Session 1: 8:50am-10:20am – Observations and Climatology (Chair: John Allen)

8:50am –  Keynote – Hail hazard and risk assessment in Europe and the relation to orographic and atmospheric characteristics | Michael Kunz, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology

9:20am – Changing tornado statistics | Michael Tippett, Columbia University

9:40am – What do we know about tornadoes in Europe? | Bogdan Antonescu, University of Manchester

10:00am – Continental Subtropical Anticyclones and Warm-Season Progressive Derechos | Lance Bosart, University at Albany/SUNY

Coffee Break: 10:20am-10:45am

Session 2: 10:45am-12:15pm – Natural Variability and Sources of Predictability (Chair: Anja Westermayer)

10:45am – Keynote – Impact of US Temperature Anomalies on Tornado and Hail Occurrence | Harold Brooks, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory

11:15am – Hail and ENSO’s Contribution to Seasonal Variability | John Allen, Columbia University

11:35pm – Spring Tornado Activity in the United States and the GWO | Victor Gensini, College of DuPage

11:55pm – Subseasonal variability of severe storms in the US: What we know and don’t know | Bradford Barrett, U.S. Naval Academy

Lunch Break: 12:15pm-1:40pm (lunch on your own)

Session 3: 1:40pm-3:05pm The (Re)Insurance Perspective Pt I (Chair: Josh Darr)

1:40pm – Resilience to Extreme Weather: New Insurance Products | Dr. Jesse M. Keenan, Vice-Chair, U.S. Community Resilience Panel for Buildings and Infrastructure

1:45pm – Keynote – An Introduction of Reinsurance for Scientists | Kelly Hereid, Chubb Tempest RE

2:10pm – A Broker View of Cat. Risk | Rick Thomas, Willis Towers Watson

2:35pm – Keynote – The RMS Approach to Severe Convective Storm Modeling | Kevin Van Leer, RMS

Coffee Break 3:05-3:30pm

Session 4: 3:30pm-5:00pm The (Re)Insurance Perspective Pt II (Chair: Kelly Hereid)

3:30pm The Winds of Change: How CAT models can help us understand the changing landscape of severe thunderstorm risk | Eric Robinson, AIR Worldwide

4:00pm – Using science to improve our lives: Anticipating, measuring and reacting to losses from SCS | Tom Larsen, CoreLogic

4:30pm – Weathering The Storm: Bringing Clarity To The Unknowns Of Severe Thunderstorm Modeling | Steve Drews, Aon Benfield

Session 5: 5:00pm-5:45pm Panel Discussion

Panel Discussion – An Insurance Perspective of Severe Convection and Climate, moderated by Mark Bove, Munich Reinsurance America, Inc.

EVENING – Workshop Function 6-8pm – Faculty House

Reception and Poster session

Drinks and hors d’oeuvres will be served.

DAY 2

Thursday 10th March – 9:00 am to 5:00 pm

Davis Auditorium

8:30-9:00am Registration, Light Breakfast and Coffee

Session 1: 9:00am-10:50am – Climate Change (Chair: Harold Brooks)

9:00am – Keynote – The realization of extreme tornadic storm events under future anthropogenic climate change | Jeff Trapp,University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

9:30am – What drives the increase in CAPE that drives the increase in severe weather? | David Romps, UC Berkeley

9:50am – Trends in hail and severe weather activities in China over the past 30 years under the changing monsoon climate | Qinghong Zhang, Peking University

10:10am – Statistical modelling of thunderstorms in the present and future climate | Anja Westermayer, Munich Re and ESSL

10:30am – High-resolution regional climate simulations of warm season convection in the United States | Kristin Rasmussen, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Coffee Break: 10:50am-11:15am

Session 2: 11:15am-12:15pm – Microphysics and Storm Dynamics (Chair: Jeff Trapp)

11:15am – Keynote – Our current understanding of tornadic storm dynamics | Yvette Richardson, Penn State University

11:45am – Keynote – Paving the way for High-Resolution Ensemble Prediction: Recent Activities and future plan for NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments | Adam Clark, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory

Lunch Break: 12:15pm-1:30pm (lunch on your own)

Session 3: 1:30pm-3:00pm – Remote Sensing (Chair: Kristin Rasmussen)

1:30pm – Keynote – Measurements of In-Cloud and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning and the relationship with Severe Storms | Kristin Kuhlman, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory

2:00pm – Automated Detection of Hazardous Storm Cells Using Long-Term Databases of Satellite Imager Observations | Kristopher Bedka, NASA Langley Research Center

2:20pm – Prospects for Future Radar-based Nowcasting of Tornado Formation and Dissipation | Michael French, Stony Brook University

2:40pm – Quantifying hail hazard from convective overshooting using peril-specific environmental conditions | Heinz Jürgen Punge, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology

Coffee Break: 3:00pm-3:30pm

Session 4: 3:30pm-5:00pm – The Scales of Prediction (Chair: Victor Gensini)

3:30pm – Keynote –  A preliminary review of 2015 CFS anomaly forecasts of precipitation and severe weather | Greg Carbin, SPC

4:00pm – Challenges in Severe Convective Storm Prediction for the Coastal-Urban New York City-Long Island Region on All Time Scales | Brian Colle, Stony Brook University

4:20pm – Seasonal Prediction of Tornadoes Using a Space-Time Statistical Model | James Elsner, FSU

4:40pm – Seasonal Prediction of Lightning Activity in North Western Venezuela: Large-Scale versus Local Drivers | Angel Muñoz, NOAA/GFDL

Posters – Presented during the Evening reception on DAY 1

 

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