Workshop on Correlated Extremes

The Workshop on Correlated Extremes will take place on Columbia University’s Morningside campus (Manhattan, NYC) on May 29-31, 2019, preceded by an evening panel on May 28. It will be comprised of a blend of invited talks and abstract submissions (both talks and posters), and will also have a significant amount of time devoted to discussions. We are anticipating total attendance of around 150. Please see below for content and logistical information. To stay connected with us on Twitter, search #correlatedextremes19 and follow us @CUcorrextr2019.

Conference Themes

Motivation and Vision

The last few years have seen emerging recognition of the societal impacts associated with climate extremes that occur close together in space or time. Globalized networks of interaction make certain combinations and correlation structures especially potent from an impacts standpoint.

The body of research on correlated climate extremes and their impacts is rapidly growing and encompasses a wide variety of event types and author perspectives, touching on climate and atmospheric dynamics, boundary-layer meteorology, statistics, climatology, policy, and social sciences. Projected changes in both circulation and regional feedbacks (such as land-atmosphere interactions) have been implicated in many of the observed and future increases in various types of correlated extremes. Finally, recent developments in spatial statistics and extreme-value theory have shown great promise for examining complex changes from a more theoretical perspective.

Our goal in this workshop is to bring together researchers who have contributed directly to this topic, or whose work touches on a key aspect of it. The workshop will complement prior related meetings with respect to the framing of risk as resulting from multivariate interactions, and to the need for more impacts-driven climate research across sectors. However, it will be distinguished from them by its broad survey of multiple types of correlated extremes; by its explicit interweaving of climate science, policy, and impacts; and by its placement outside the bounds of traditional event-based categories of study.

Expected Outcomes

We hope the workshop will aid in coalescing the community of interested researchers and practitioners around shared definitions, themes, best practices, and future research priorities. We are optimistic that the cross-disciplinary interactions the workshop will foster will contribute to producing new funding streams, inspiring future research, and supporting actionable science and risk calculations. To this end, we plan to publish a peer-reviewed perspectives paper and to encourage media accounts that lead to greater research, practitioner, and public awareness. Considering the emerging nature and broad applicability of the topic, we believe there is potential for highly visible and valuable research to emerge from this workshop.

Workshop Schedule

All events will take place in Davis Auditorium in the Schapiro Center building, 530 West 120th Street, New York, NY — see below for additional logistical details. Certain specifics of sessions and talks are currently tentative.

Tuesday, May 28

Wednesday, May 29

Thursday, May 30

Friday, May 31

Presenters

—Talks—

Panel / Kate Marvel (NASA GISS) [moderator], Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick (UNSW), Michael Oppenheimer (Princeton), TBD

Keynotes

Jakob Zscheischler (U. Bern), “The challenges associated with correlated climate extremes”

Kate White (US Army Corps of Engineers)

Compound Events: Diverse Approaches

Audrey Brouillet (IPSL), “Co-occurrence of temperature and heat stress extremes : the role of the near-surface air relative humidity”

Ethan Coffel (Dartmouth), “Increasingly frequent hot and dry years exacerbate water scarcity in the Nile Basin despite rising precipitation”

Alexandre Ramos (U. Lisbon), “Compound events in the Iberian Peninsula: From hydrometeorological disasters to wildfires”

Jana Sillmann (CICERO), “Double trouble: Air pollution and extreme temperatures”

Michael Wehner (LBNL), “Estimating the probability of multi-variate extreme weather events”

Sha Zhou (Columbia U.), “Future risks of compound drought and aridity events”

Compound Events: Storms and Floods

Philip Ward (VU Amsterdam), “Compound flooding due to surge and river discharge at the global scale”

Merce Casas Prat (ECC Canada), “Multivariate ocean wave extremes in the Arctic region”

Ivan Haigh (U. Southampton), “Assessing the characteristics and drivers of compound flooding events around the UK coast”

Michelle Hummel (U. Texas), “Assessment of coastal groundwater hazards from compound extreme water levels and precipitation”

David Lucio (U. Cantabria), “Multivariate stochastic modeling of long-term sea-states for extreme and regular hourly conditions”

Kathleen McInnes (CSIRO), “Recent efforts to understand the drivers of compound events in Australia”

Concurrent Events

Thomas Wahl (UCF), “Using multivariate statistical models to assess spatial footprints of global storm surges”

Lisa-Ann Kautz (KIT), “Forecast variability of the blocking system over Russia in summer 2010”

Kai Kornhuber (U. Oxford), “Summer 2018 persistent circulations”

Bradfield Lyon (U. Maine), “Projected increase in the spatial extent of contiguous U.S. summer heat waves and associated attributes”

Carly Tozer (CSIRO), “The influence of global scale wave trains on compound and concurrent weather extremes in Tasmania and beyond”

Martha Vogel (ETH Zurich) [remote presentation], “Concurrent 2018 hot extremes across the Northern Hemisphere due to human-induced climate change”

Sequential or Persistent Events

Olivia Martius (U. Bern), “Recurrent and persistent surface extremes and their links to recurrent Rossby wave patterns”

Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick (UNSW), “A comprehensive assessment of global and regional observed heatwave trends”

Dim Coumou (PIK), “Persistent summer circulation: Risks, impacts & drivers”

Arlene Fiore (Columbia U.), “More frequent and longer duration pollution and heat events over the 21st century in a small chemistry-climate model ensemble”

Meredith Fish (UC San Diego), “Assessing the connection between atmospheric river events and exploring their relation to extratropical and tropical large-scale drivers”

Colin Zarzycki (Penn State), “Storm-level metrics for categorizing the societal and hydrological impacts of northeastern U.S. winter storms”

Correlated Extremes in Traditional Disciplines

Amir AghaKouchak (UC Irvine), Floods

Norel Rimbu (Alfred Wegener Inst), “Variability of extreme climate over Europe from a paleoclimate perspective”

Deepti Singh (Washington State), “Concurrent regional and global temperature extremes”

Park Williams (Columbia U.), Wildfires

Sectoral Perspectives on Societal Impacts

Jeremy Hess (U. Washington), Cascading effects on human health

Weston Anderson (Columbia U.), “What causes concurrent crop failures?”

Jane Baldwin (Princeton U.), “The impact of temporally compound heat wave events on mortality”

James Done (NCAR), “Understanding the impacts of correlated extremes on flood risk and water resource management”

Alex Ruane (NASA GISS), Agriculture and food security

Lisa Thalheimer (U. Oxford), “The multifaceted relationship between extreme weather events, displacement and conflict: New insights from Somalia”

Systemic Risk: Identification, Response, and Societal Feedbacks

Marla Schwartz-Pourrabbani (Swiss Re)

David Bresch (ETH Zurich) [remote presentation], “Connecting loose ends – disentangling compound causation”

David Carozza (UQAM), “On the impact of ENSO on spatial diversification of riverine flood and tropical cyclone wind risk at the global scale”

Franziska Gaupp (IIASA), “Increasing risks of multiple breadbasket failure under 1.5 and 2 C global warming”

Virginia Iglesias (U. Colorado), “Extreme events meet ecological resilience theory”

William Travis (U. Colorado), “Timing is everything: correlated extremes meet adaptation pathways”

 

—Posters—

Poster presentations

 

Registration and Abstract Submission

Registration is required and is open using this linkThe abstract-submission period ended on February 25.

Video Recordings

The large majority of the workshop proceedings will be freely available to be viewed online as a livestream, as well as recorded for later. We are providing this service to aid in broadening access for people who are not traveling to New York for personal, financial, or ecological reasons.

Once the event starts, the recordings will be found at the following links:

May 28          May 29          May 30          May 31

Travel Information

We have prepared a pdf document describing the workshop location, and travel directions from the three major airports and Midtown Manhattan.

A block of rooms have been set aside for workshop attendees at the Aloft Harlem hotel, about 1km from the Columbia University campus and easily accessible by mass transit. To reserve within this block, please use this link.

Typical weather in New York City in late May is comfortable, with daytime temperatures of 20-24 C and nighttime temperatures of 13-17 C. More detailed plots are available here.

Organizing Committee

Radley Horton (Columbia University)  —  rh142@columbia.edu

Colin Raymond (Columbia University)  —  cr2630@columbia.edu

Amir AghaKouchak (University of California Irvine)

Suzana Camargo (Columbia University)

Noah Diffenbaugh (Stanford University)

Olivia Martius (University of Bern)

Michael Oppenheimer (Princeton University)

Alex Ruane (NASA GISS)

Sonia Seneviratne (ETH Zürich)

Thomas Wahl (University of Central Florida

Jakob Zscheischler (University of Bern)

 

This conference is sponsored by Columbia University’s Adaptation Initiative and Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate; NSF; NOAA RISA; WCRP; and COST.