Workshop on Correlated Extremes

The Workshop on Correlated Extremes will take place on Columbia University’s Morningside campus (Manhattan, NYC) on May 29-31, 2019, preceded by an evening panel on May 28. It will be comprised of a blend of invited talks and abstract submissions, with significant effort aimed at generating discussion among the attendees. We are aiming for a total attendance of between 100 and 150. Please see below for logistical information. To stay connected with us on Twitter, search #correlatedextremes19.

Conference Themes

Motivation and Vision

The last few years have seen emerging recognition of the societal impacts associated with climate extremes that occur close together in space or time. Globalized networks of interaction make certain combinations and correlation structures especially potent from an impacts standpoint.

We define “correlated climate extremes” as encompassing the three categories below.

1. Compound/multivariate: events that occur at the same time and in the same place. Examples include:

2. Concurrent: events of the same or different type that occur at the same time and in multiple places. Examples include:

3. Sequential or persistent: events that occur at multiple times in the same place. Examples include:

The body of research on correlated climate extremes and their impacts is rapidly growing and encompasses a wide variety of event types and author perspectives, touching on climate and atmospheric dynamics, boundary-layer meteorology, statistics, climatology, policy, and social sciences. Projected changes in both circulation and regional feedbacks (such as land-atmosphere interactions) have been implicated in many of the observed and future increases in various types of correlated extremes. Finally, recent developments in spatial statistics and extreme-value theory have shown great promise for examining complex changes from a more theoretical perspective.

Our goal in this workshop is to bring together researchers who have contributed directly to this topic, or whose work touches on a key aspect of it. The workshop will complement prior related meetings with respect to the framing of risk as resulting from multivariate interactions, and to the need for more impacts-driven climate research across sectors. However, it will be distinguished from them by its broad survey of multiple types of correlated extremes; by its explicit interweaving of climate science, policy, and impacts; and by its placement outside the bounds of traditional event-based categories of study.

Expected Outcomes

We hope the workshop will aid in coalescing the community of interested researchers and practitioners around shared definitions, themes, best practices, and future research priorities. We are optimistic that the cross-disciplinary interactions the workshop will foster will contribute to producing new funding streams, inspiring future research, and supporting actionable science and risk calculations. To this end, we plan to publish a peer-reviewed perspectives paper and to encourage media accounts that lead to greater research, practitioner, and public awareness. Considering the emerging nature and broad applicability of the topic, we believe there is potential for highly visible and valuable research to emerge from this workshop.

Draft Workshop Outline

Tuesday, May 28

Wednesday, May 29

Thursday, May 30

Friday, May 31

Confirmed Speakers

Kai Kornhuber (University of Oxford)

Kate Marvel (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

Michael Oppenheimer (Princeton University)

Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick (University of New South Wales)

Philip Ward (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

Kate White (US Army Corps of Engineers)

Marc Wüest (Swiss Re)

Jakob Zscheischler (University of Bern)

Registration and Abstract Submission

Registration is open using this link.

 

The abstract submission deadline has been extended! To accommodate scientists affected by the recent US government shutdown, abstracts will be accepted through Feb 25, 2019 using this link.

 

Abstracts will be peer-reviewed by members of the organizing committee, and minor modifications to presentations may be requested in some cases. We will aim to provide notification of accepted abstracts and travel support during the week of March 4, and no later than March 15. Announcement of the final program will follow shortly thereafter. Please contact Radley Horton (rh142@columbia.edu) or Colin Raymond (cr2630@columbia.edu) with any questions.

Accommodations in NYC

A block of rooms have been set aside for workshop attendees at the Aloft Harlem hotel, about 1km from the Columbia University campus and easily accessible by mass transit. To reserve within this block, please use this link.

Logistical Information

We have prepared a pdf document describing the workshop location and travel directions from the three major airports and from Midtown Manhattan.

Typical weather in New York City in late May is comfortable, with daytime temperatures of 20-24 C and nighttime temperatures of 13-17 C. More detailed plots are available here.

Organizing Committee

Radley Horton (Columbia University)

Colin Raymond (Columbia University)

Sonia Seneviratne (ETH Zürich)

Jakob Zscheischler (University of Bern)

Amir AghaKouchak (University of California Irvine)

Thomas Wahl (University of Central Florida)

Noah Diffenbaugh (Stanford University)

Suzana Camargo (Columbia University)

Michael Oppenheimer (Princeton University)

Olivia Martius (University of Bern)

Alex Ruane (NASA GISS)

 

This conference is sponsored by Columbia University’s Adaptation Initiative and Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate, NOAA RISA, WCRP, and COST.